#1 "Chinamerica. China is invigorated with a sense of entrepreneurship... while in the USA, such a spirit is in decline. 'America owned the 20th century,' he writes, 'but it won't own the 21st.'"
TSC: So much for making predictions about 2007; doesn't Mr. Celente know that the 21st century extends through the year 2099? Narrow your scope a bit. That's my first issue with this prediction. Second, who's to say that entrepreneurship is in decline in the U.S.? This is a made up statistic being used to extrapolate a trend for the next 93 years. Give me a break.
#2 "Medical Tourism. American consumers will be 'globetrotting'... seeking overseas doctors to perform procedures not readily available or not covered by insurance."
TSC: I buy this one. There are some countries specializing in medical industries that target Americans.
#3 "Recession. Celente says the USA is 'sliding into a long-term economic downtrend,' influenced by high consumer debt and low incomes."
TSC: Really? How many times have we heard this prediction? Still no recession. Consumer debt hits a new all time high every year, and still no recession. Perhaps because there are other financial assets financing this debt, like 401ks, home equity, and stock and bond investments. Consumer debt is not a predictor of recessions. As for "low incomes," this is just another jab at Republicans. Incomes are still rising, Mr. Celente.
#4 "Shrinking middle class. The rich are getting super-rich..." yada yada yada.
TSC: We've heard this all before. I could be convinced that the middle class is shrinking with enough data, but isn't that a sign that our economy is dynamic and heavily influenced by entrepreneurship (see #1)? But wait a minute -- if the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer, aren't the two ends of the spectrum spreading out, pulling away, thereby widening the middle class?
#5 "Old-school cool. There is a discontent with the values of politics and pop culture, and the level of entertainment, fashion and food will make the good old days look even better. Consumers of all ages will demand higher quality."
TSC: So what's the prediction here: people want higher quality goods? Basic economic principle: consumers act in their own best interests by seeking the highest quality goods at the lowest possible price. In addition, quality per dollar improves every single year (think automobiles), so I wouldn't call this a very risky prediction.
#6 "Internet politics. 'The Internet candidate who motivates some 50% of the Internet generation to go to the polls could win the White House.'"
TSC: Another technicality here, but this is a 2008 prediction, not 2007. Second, who is the Internet generation? If it's people born after or coming of age after 1995, they don't vote. If it's anyone on the Internet, 50% is an awfully big number to motivate. Finally, read his bold prediction one more time: "could win the White House." Could? Wow, really taking a risk with that one aren't you Mr. Celente?
#7 "Technotribalism. Thanks to the Internet, people who share ideals and values will form associations and bonds that transcend borders, religons, and political ideologies."
TSC: What are "ideals and values" if not religion and political ideology? I actually agree with this prediction except for the nonsense at the end of the sentence.
#8 "Reunited States. Americans are tired of political rhetoric and will go for civility and healing in political discussions. Unless there is another terrorist attack, in which case 'fear will again dominate the nation's psyche, sides will be taken and polarization will intensify.'"
TSC: I guess this prediction says we'll all become moderates. I'm amazed that Mr. Celente thinks political polarization was caused by terrorism -- perhaps he's forgotten the lawsuits and chaos following the 2000 election.
#9 "The not-so-ugly American. After a period in which Americans have been considered rude, arrogant, overweight and not all that bright, there will be a 'global warming' trend toward the USA..."
TSC: I don't travel much internationally so all I hear is the media and Democrats decrying the dimunition of America's reputation, so I'll trust Mr. Celente on this one -- he may know better. But news flash: we're still rude, arrogant, overweight, and not very bright (at least relative to enlightened Europeans). We won't miraculously change in 2007, so why should the perception change? Oh, maybe because the Democrats are now in charge of Congress. World peace must be on the way...