Posted by
The Secular Conservative on Thursday, March 29, 2007 10:01:47 PM
I keep hearing about all these primaries that are moving up on the schedule, and how they're essentially going to decide both candidates on one Super Tuesday nine months before the general election. Oh yeah, and anyone who doesn't get in really early won't have enough money to get the primary votes, so late-comers don't have a prayer. This concerns me because I like Newt, and he will be a late-comer if he gets in the race.
But this focus on a Primary Super Tuesday assumes one very important outcome: EVERY RACE ON THAT TUESDAY WILL GO TOWARDS A SINGLE CANDIDATE FOR EACH PARTY. Right? Because the only way it's decisive is if every state goes toward, say Obama and Rudy. Then everyone else is clearly out of luck, right?
What no one considers is what happens IF EVERY RACE HAS A DIFFERENT WINNER.
You see, the reason the primary system sucks now is because a few states have early primaries and each candidate focuses their attention on those states only. Whoever wins the first two or three becomes the automatic frontrunner, so voters in later states change their voting behavior. That's why it's so important to win in the early states, because the later states will be influenced by the results of the early states and it cascades across the country.
By having all (or most) of the primaries on one day, none of the early states can influence the later states, so we get a true sense of what the people want in each state. If we get an honest outcome from each state, and each state picks the same candidate, we get a true frontrunner. But we also have the opportunity to get a different winner in each state, which means following the early primaries, we still have a toss-up. What can be more exciting than that?
So picture this: Each candidate raises and spends as much money as possible ahead of Primary Super Tuesday. On Wednesday, everyone wakes up to find that no clear winner came out of all primaries. But everyone is broke and donors don't know who to give money to for the later primaries and the general election.
What a mess, right? Not for a late starter (like Newt), who can come charging in with a full campaign warchest, since he didn't waste it for all those months on the primary campaign trail. For the right candidate, under the right circumstances, a Super Primary Tuesday could be a huge windfall, and current frontrunners could find themselves out of money with nine months to go.
Let's not forget this is a marathon, not a sprint.
-tsc